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CMHC: Provincial Disparities in Housing Market Activity for 2015 and 2016


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Blog by Randy Miller | May 26th, 2015


housing market outlook

According to the CMHC, housing markets are expected to remain stable for the rest of the year, and starts are expected to moderate in 2015 and 2016.

“Lower oil prices are contributing to disparities between provincial housing markets. A slowdown in housing starts and resale transactions in oil-producing provinces such as Alberta will be partly offset by increased housing market activity in other provinces, such as Ontario and British Columbia, which benefit from the positive impacts of declining energy prices, a lower Canadian dollar and continued low mortgage rates,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC, in the news release.

The average price for a home sold through the MLS system is forecast to fall between $402,139 and $439,589 in 2015, with a point forecast of $422,129. Looking ahead to 2016, the average MLS price is expected to range between $398,191 and $457,200, with a point forecast of $428,325.

Canada-wide, home sales via the MLS system are believed to range between 437,100 and 494,500 units for 2015, with a point forecast of 475,400 units. In 2016, sales are to expected to range from 424,500 units to 491,300 units, with a point forecast of 469,000 units.

Housing starts are expected to decline by 4.1 per cent – and range between 166,540 and 188,580 units -- in 2015. Prices, meanwhile, are expected to increase by 3.4 per cent.

As for the near future, housing starts are expected to range between 162,840 and 190,830 in 2016.

In Ontario, all eyes are on the GTA housing market, which continues to see strong sale and price growth.

Demand for existing homes in the GTA is expected to remain strong. The CMHC is also forecasting stronger interest in higher density dwellings and conversely, an uptick in home rentals over ownership.

“An improving economy will be more supportive of the Ontario housing market in 2015 than it has been in the recent past,” said Ted Tsiakopoulos, CMHC’s Ontario Regional Economist. “However, as mortgage carrying costs continue to grow, particularly for single family homes, demand will increasingly shift to more affordable housing.”

Source: CMHC.ca

If you want to learn more about the local housing market of Whitby, Brooklin or other areas within Durham Region, contact me! 

Randy Miller
Broker of Record
Royal Heritage Realty Ltd.
Offices in Pickering and in Whitby
905-430-1800